Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -155 WAG +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -0.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.7 (+7.7) | 138.6 (-9.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -0.8 (+6.2) | 138.1 (-9.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -0.4 (+7.4) | 139.1 (-10.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -0.6 (+7.6) | 139.0 (-10.0) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | WAG 66 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#341) | -9.3 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#356) | -2.81 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.94 (#353) | -3.32 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.362 (#356) | 0.375 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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