Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -190 WAG +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -5.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -3.7 (+7.3) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -2.6 (+8.4) | 131.3 (-4.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -4.2 (+6.8) | 130.5 (-3.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -3.9 (+7.1) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | WAG 66 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#322) | -12.5 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#312) | -1.73 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#310) | -2.69 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#304) | 0.415 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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