Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -700 CAL +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +1 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -7.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -5.7 (-6.7) | 144.5 (+26.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.4 (-7.4) | 141.2 (+29.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -6.5 (-7.5) | 142.4 (+28.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -7.1 (-8.1) | 143.9 (+27.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2025 | CAL 98 – 94 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#35) | 10.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#35) | 2.05 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#34) | 2.74 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#63) | 0.577 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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