Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | PV +102 TXSO -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PV -2.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -0.9 (+6.1) | 154.6 (+8.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -2.5 (+4.5) | 156.9 (+6.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.7 (+6.3) | 152.5 (+10.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.6 (+6.4) | 153.6 (+9.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PV 70 – 59 TXSO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 68 PV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 63 PV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 78 PV |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TXSO 80 – 69 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#340) | -12.1 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#334) | -2.08 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#338) | -2.65 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#348) | 0.397 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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