Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PV +100 TXSO +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -1.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -0.3 (-11.3) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -0.5 (-11.5) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -0.1 (-10.9) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.2 (-11.2) | 137.6 (+11.4) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PV 70 – 59 TXSO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PV 85 – 78 TXSO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 68 PV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 63 PV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 78 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#313) | -7.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#253) | -0.99 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#261) | -1.62 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#284) | 0.457 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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