Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UL +142 GASO -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -2.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -2.0 (+11.0) | 138.6 (-9.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -3.8 (+12.8) | 138.8 (-9.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -1.8 (+10.8) | 141.8 (-12.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -1.8 (+10.8) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | GASO 83 – 82 UL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UL 67 – 49 GASO |
| Jan 29, 2023 | UL 94 – 87 GASO |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UL 82 – 69 GASO |
| Jan 30, 2022 | GASO 66 – 65 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#325) | -5.9 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#322) | -0.47 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#321) | -1.03 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#309) | 0.461 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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