Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UCF +195 TTU -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -4.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -2.4 (+10.4) | 153.8 (+14.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -2.0 (+10.0) | 153.4 (+14.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -1.3 (+9.3) | 155.6 (+12.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -2.7 (+10.7) | 155.2 (+12.8) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | UCF 87 – 83 TTU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UCF 75 – 61 TTU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TTU 66 – 59 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#48) | 18.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#20) | 3.80 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#24) | 4.59 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#20) | 0.666 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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