Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -125 TTU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -0.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.9 (+13.1) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.6 (+13.4) | 141.8 (-5.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.3 (+13.7) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -0.4 (+13.6) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCF 88 – 80 TTU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UCF 87 – 83 TTU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TTU 66 – 59 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#64) | 13.2 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#110) | 2.19 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#103) | 2.54 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#125) | 0.595 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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