Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -1600 UCF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | TTU -16.6 (-20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -11.8 (-15.8) | 154.6 (+15.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -11.8 (-15.8) | 151.6 (+18.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -12.5 (-16.5) | 149.5 (+20.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -12.8 (-16.8) | 151.8 (+18.2) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCF 88 – 80 TTU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UCF 75 – 61 TTU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TTU 66 – 59 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#15) | 5.2 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#79) | 2.10 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#62) | 2.79 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#83) | 0.609 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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