Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -350 UCF +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -5.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -5.5 (+1.5) | 139.7 (-14.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -5.2 (+1.8) | 138.3 (-13.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -5.5 (+1.5) | 138.6 (-13.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -5.4 (+1.6) | 139.2 (-14.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCF 88 – 80 TTU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UCF 87 – 83 TTU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UCF 75 – 61 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#38) | 9.6 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#39) | 1.34 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#50) | 1.75 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#42) | 0.559 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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