They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–18 on winners spread MAE 10.1 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UIC @ Southern Illinois +2.2 137.0 60% 68–66 ✗
Rutgers @ USC +11.6 146.8 87% 75–78 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -8.5 143.1 19% 59–62 ✗
Harvard @ Yale +13.5 142.6 88% 67–65 ✗
New Haven @ Saint Francis -1.6 130.9 40% 81–69 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany -2.1 135.5 42% 68–65 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar -6.8 141.9 25% 64–63 ✓
UConn @ Creighton -6.9 140.0 24% 85–58 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +6.7 157.4 76% 86–103 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +0.5 135.2 56% 72–68 ✗
Washington @ Northwestern +1.5 142.0 58% 76–62 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +1.8 154.6 60% 94–87 ✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -2.1 148.1 42% 64–81 ✗
Georgia State @ South Alabama +6.0 136.1 74% 67–69 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona -3.5 142.7 35% 79–62 ✓
South Florida @ Temple -4.9 151.6 30% 78–79 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -2.4 128.7 31% 58–46 ✓
Auburn @ Tennessee +5.0 151.8 70% 69–77 ✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount -8.6 144.7 19% 104–73 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +6.3 151.4 76% 69–83 ✓
Delaware @ UTEP +0.8 131.0 57% 55–70 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming +1.9 136.9 62% 57–68 ✓
New Mexico @ San José State -14.2 142.0 14% 90–80 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +3.6 135.4 64% 82–87 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State -4.9 149.6 28% 79–86 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston +12.3 134.1 87% 67–83 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +13.1 143.8 87% 65–73 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +0.2 143.4 52% 61–76 ✓
Purdue @ Maryland -12.7 144.1 15% 93–63 ✓
Alabama @ Florida +6.5 167.8 74% 77–100 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +4.5 137.6 71% 58–75 ✓
Siena @ Canisius -8.1 132.6 21% 78–63 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina +1.8 149.9 61% 88–74 ✗
Chattanooga @ Furman +10.0 140.6 84% 70–75 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State -10.9 151.7 16% 95–61 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +14.4 146.5 89% 64–99 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa +7.5 150.4 79% 83–93 ✓
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic +14.1 146.3 87% 76–75 ✗
TCU @ Colorado -1.3 148.9 43% 61–87 ✗
Minnesota @ Penn State -2.1 140.0 45% 75–77 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider -8.2 132.7 20% 78–81 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield +0.1 145.5 52% 72–65 ✗
Wright State @ Green Bay -2.5 143.5 40% 83–75 ✓
Marist @ Niagara -10.7 124.9 15% 58–46 ✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's +4.4 144.2 71% 65–72 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe -8.8 143.5 18% 83–79 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +11.1 141.8 86% 78–76 ✗
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +6.6 151.8 77% 90–88 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +6.1 159.9 76% 65–76 ✓
Illinois @ Nebraska +4.7 142.4 66% 78–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.