Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CREI +285 CONN -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +27 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -7.8 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.0 (-20.0) | 139.1 (+3.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.7 (-23.3) | 142.3 (+0.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.9 (-20.1) | 140.0 (+3.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.7 (-21.3) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
| Feb 21, 2024 | CREI 85 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#66) | 20.0 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#72) | 5.37 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#75) | 7.11 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#66) | 0.674 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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