Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CREI +165 CONN -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -2.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.4 (+11.4) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.7 (+11.7) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.5 (+11.5) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.2 (+11.2) | 142.4 (-9.4) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
| Feb 21, 2024 | CREI 85 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#39) | 15.5 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#41) | 2.25 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#45) | 3.25 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#37) | 0.563 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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