Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CREI +115 CONN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +19 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -0.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -1.0 (+18.0) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.2 (+17.8) | 148.4 (+2.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -2.8 (+16.2) | 148.9 (+2.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.8 (+17.2) | 149.1 (+1.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#13) | 20.5 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#26) | 3.74 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#20) | 4.48 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#28) | 0.634 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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