Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1800 CREI +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +7 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -15.9 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -15.5 (-22.5) | 144.4 (+30.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -13.7 (-20.7) | 143.8 (+31.2) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -17.2 (-24.2) | 146.4 (+28.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -15.7 (-22.7) | 145.3 (+29.7) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
| Feb 21, 2024 | CREI 85 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#12) | 7.7 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#4) | 1.22 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.67 (#4) | 1.61 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#3) | 0.536 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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