Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -625 ECU +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -16.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -13.5 (-14.5) | 148.9 (+2.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -14.1 (-15.1) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -13.7 (-14.7) | 148.0 (+3.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -13.1 (-14.1) | 151.0 (-0.0) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2025 | FAU 81 – 53 ECU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FAU 78 – 76 ECU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | FAU 79 – 64 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#99) | -8.0 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#89) | -1.59 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#89) | -2.10 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#58) | 0.446 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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