Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -200 ECU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +28 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -6.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -7.3 (+20.7) | 151.9 (-17.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -5.1 (+22.9) | 152.4 (-18.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -5.0 (+23.0) | 153.5 (-19.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -5.8 (+22.2) | 153.8 (-19.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ECU 76 – 75 FAU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FAU 78 – 76 ECU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | FAU 79 – 64 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#113) | -0.0 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#130) | 0.05 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#123) | -0.14 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#118) | 0.502 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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