Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +115 FAU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -2.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -2.3 (+0.3) | 153.5 (+0.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -2.2 (+0.2) | 151.4 (+2.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -2.5 (+0.5) | 151.8 (+2.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -2.3 (+0.3) | 153.3 (+0.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ECU 76 – 75 FAU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FAU 81 – 53 ECU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | FAU 79 – 64 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#193) | 4.7 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#262) | 0.58 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#263) | 1.31 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#253) | 0.565 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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