Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | WCU -112 SAM -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +14 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -2.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -1.3 (-15.3) | 152.5 (+9.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -1.8 (-15.8) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -2.4 (-16.4) | 151.5 (+10.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -3.1 (-17.1) | 151.9 (+10.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
| Jan 16, 2024 | SAM 75 – 71 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#266) | -6.2 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#261) | -1.14 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#269) | -1.46 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#227) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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