Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -333 WCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +26 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -8.1 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.1 (+18.9) | 155.6 (-5.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.0 (+18.0) | 152.7 (-2.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -8.6 (+17.4) | 155.0 (-5.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -8.4 (+17.6) | 155.7 (-5.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Jan 16, 2024 | SAM 75 – 71 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#71) | 3.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#22) | 0.83 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#39) | 0.93 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#36) | 0.537 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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