Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -245 WCU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -6.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.4 (+0.6) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -6.9 (-1.9) | 148.1 (+10.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -4.5 (+0.5) | 147.3 (+11.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -4.1 (+0.9) | 148.8 (+10.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
| Jan 16, 2024 | SAM 75 – 71 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#247) | -8.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#224) | -0.72 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#227) | -1.33 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#228) | 0.499 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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