Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -1800 WCU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +21 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -20.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -15.8 (+5.2) | 155.1 (+9.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -14.7 (+6.3) | 156.6 (+8.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -14.5 (+6.5) | 151.5 (+13.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -15.7 (+5.3) | 153.4 (+11.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
| Jan 16, 2024 | SAM 75 – 71 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#109) | -13.1 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#112) | -2.14 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#117) | -2.58 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#95) | 0.425 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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