Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 176.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -455 ALA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +23 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -5.1 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.4 (+16.6) | 167.4 (+9.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.9 (+16.1) | 172.4 (+4.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -6.5 (+16.5) | 167.8 (+9.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.1 (+16.9) | 164.5 (+12.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ALA 98 – 93 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#7) | 19.8 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#23) | 3.05 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#18) | 4.08 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.639 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 46.1 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 43.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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