Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 178.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -170 FLA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +5 | 193 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -2.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.8 (-6.8) | 170.4 (+22.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.7 (-7.7) | 178.3 (+14.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -2.9 (-7.9) | 175.2 (+17.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.4 (-8.4) | 177.6 (+15.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ALA 98 – 93 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 22.6 (#5) | 23.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#4) | 4.22 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#6) | 5.50 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#2) | 0.642 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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