Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -200 FLA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +14 | 190 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -6.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.9 (-15.9) | 174.9 (+15.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.9 (-16.9) | 175.9 (+14.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.1 (-17.1) | 173.5 (+16.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.9 (-16.9) | 175.5 (+14.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ALA 98 – 93 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#8) | 12.7 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#17) | 2.11 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#15) | 2.86 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#12) | 0.593 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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