Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -500 FLA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -11.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.3 (-4.3) | 168.8 (+22.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -11.7 (-6.7) | 170.4 (+20.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -11.0 (-6.0) | 171.8 (+19.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.3 (-6.3) | 174.5 (+16.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#4) | 12.8 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#15) | 2.27 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#13) | 2.91 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#8) | 0.608 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 44.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 16.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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