Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 176.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -154 ALA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +18 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -4.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 182.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.8 (+18.8) | 178.1 (+13.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.7 (+18.7) | 184.1 (+7.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -0.1 (+17.9) | 174.7 (+17.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -0.9 (+18.9) | 180.2 (+11.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ALA 98 – 93 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#33) | 19.9 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#27) | 2.53 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#23) | 3.19 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#28) | 0.627 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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