Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 179.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -155 ALA +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +22 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -1.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -3.9 (+18.1) | 172.3 (+13.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.6 (+20.4) | 179.8 (+6.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -3.2 (+18.8) | 177.9 (+8.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.1 (+19.9) | 180.2 (+5.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ALA 98 – 93 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#4) | 22.6 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#2) | 4.09 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.84 (#2) | 4.96 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#4) | 0.665 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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