Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SF -205 PAC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SF -4.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -3.6 (+1.4) | 134.8 (+34.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -4.7 (+0.3) | 135.7 (+33.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -3.6 (+1.4) | 135.4 (+33.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -3.3 (+1.7) | 136.7 (+32.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SF 72 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SF 71 – 58 PAC |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SF 89 – 81 PAC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SF 79 – 73 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SF 92 – 88 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#108) | 3.7 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#111) | 0.70 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#100) | 0.95 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#124) | 0.543 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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