Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +600 SF -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -12.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -12.8 (+4.8) | 141.0 (+29.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -11.1 (+3.1) | 139.3 (+30.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -10.8 (+2.8) | 140.0 (+30.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -10.7 (+2.7) | 139.5 (+30.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SF 72 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | SF 87 – 82 PAC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SF 71 – 58 PAC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SF 79 – 73 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SF 92 – 88 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-10 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#287) | 9.2 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#325) | 1.81 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#311) | 2.33 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#321) | 0.589 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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