Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SF -2500 PAC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SF -18.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -18.0 (-5.0) | 142.0 (-13.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -17.5 (-4.5) | 143.5 (-14.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -16.2 (-3.2) | 141.5 (-12.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -17.3 (-4.3) | 141.1 (-12.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SF 72 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | SF 87 – 82 PAC |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SF 89 – 81 PAC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SF 79 – 73 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SF 92 – 88 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#66) | -6.5 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#53) | -1.45 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#58) | -1.84 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#44) | 0.430 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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