Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +1300 SF -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +4 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -23.3 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+48.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -18.4 (+14.4) | 134.6 (+45.4) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -16.0 (+12.0) | 131.5 (+48.5) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -16.1 (+12.1) | 131.2 (+48.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -19.2 (+15.2) | 138.1 (+41.9) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SF 72 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | SF 87 – 82 PAC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SF 71 – 58 PAC |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SF 89 – 81 PAC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SF 79 – 73 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 11-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L23 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -16.8 (#358) | 10.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#314) | 1.46 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#322) | 2.05 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#338) | 0.572 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 27.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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