Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UALB +100 UMBC -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -1.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.1 (-1.9) | 136.1 (-3.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.0 (-3.0) | 136.2 (-3.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.1 (-0.9) | 135.5 (-2.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.6 (-1.4) | 136.0 (-3.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UMBC 114 – 102 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 6-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#315) | -6.1 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#341) | -1.16 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#325) | -1.58 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#338) | 0.445 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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