Betting Lines
| Spread | UALB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +115 UALB -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -2.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.7 (-4.7) | 157.9 (-5.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -0.2 (-3.8) | 155.1 (-3.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.1 (-5.1) | 155.0 (-3.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.3 (-5.3) | 156.7 (-4.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UMBC 114 – 102 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#294) | -7.3 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#304) | -1.05 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#284) | -1.27 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#282) | 0.451 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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