Betting Lines
| Spread | UALB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | UALB -225 UMBC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +12 | 216 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -9.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.1 (+41.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UALB -7.1 (-19.1) | 166.5 (+49.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -6.4 (-18.4) | 168.3 (+47.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -7.6 (-19.6) | 165.5 (+50.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -6.5 (-18.5) | 166.3 (+49.7) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#234) | -9.2 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#213) | -2.57 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#230) | -2.99 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#186) | 0.369 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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