Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -290 UALB +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -9.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -8.5 (-4.5) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -6.7 (-2.7) | 139.4 (-11.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.0 (-5.0) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -7.9 (-3.9) | 139.4 (-11.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UMBC 114 – 102 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#233) | -10.6 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#235) | -2.03 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#239) | -2.33 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#225) | 0.435 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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