Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -163 UALB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -0.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.5 (+4.5) | 167.2 (-12.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.9 (+4.1) | 164.5 (-9.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.2 (+4.8) | 166.3 (-11.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.5 (+4.5) | 166.2 (-11.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UMBC 114 – 102 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#299) | -4.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#332) | -0.73 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#320) | -1.09 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#342) | 0.480 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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