Betting Lines
| Spread | UALB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UALB -195 UMBC +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +5 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -4.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UALB -3.5 (-8.5) | 155.5 (+23.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -4.1 (-9.1) | 154.6 (+24.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -2.9 (-7.9) | 156.4 (+22.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -3.1 (-8.1) | 155.3 (+23.7) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UMBC 114 – 102 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#267) | -7.2 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#240) | -1.64 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#239) | -1.86 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#247) | 0.416 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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