Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -115 NHVN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NHVN +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | NHVN -1.7 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NHVN -2.0 (-10.0) | 129.3 (+20.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NHVN -1.6 (-10.4) | 130.9 (+19.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NHVN -1.6 (-10.4) | 131.2 (+18.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NHVN -1.1 (-10.9) | 131.3 (+18.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | SFPA 73 – 67 NHVN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -16.7 (#354) | -11.9 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#347) | -1.89 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.46 (#351) | -2.48 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#339) | 0.433 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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