Betting Lines
| Spread | NHVN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NHVN -325 SFPA +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NHVN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NHVN -8.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NHVN -6.4 (-12.4) | 131.9 (+8.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NHVN -7.9 (-13.9) | 132.7 (+7.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NHVN -7.6 (-13.6) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NHVN -7.1 (-13.1) | 130.8 (+9.2) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | NHVN 81 – 69 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NHVN | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#320) | -16.5 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#315) | -3.07 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#320) | -3.99 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#276) | 0.391 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NHVN | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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