Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -130 UAB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -0.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.1 (-4.1) | 138.3 (+1.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -1.3 (-5.3) | 137.0 (+3.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -0.5 (-4.5) | 135.2 (+4.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -0.3 (-4.3) | 135.9 (+4.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UAB 71 – 62 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#164) | 3.3 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#152) | 0.29 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#152) | 0.45 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#203) | 0.501 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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