Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -163 UNT +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -1.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -1.2 (+7.8) | 133.0 (-0.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -0.6 (+8.4) | 135.4 (-2.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -1.6 (+7.4) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -1.4 (+7.6) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#121) | 7.7 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#76) | 0.76 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#92) | 1.28 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#48) | 0.532 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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