Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -260 UAB +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -11.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -9.3 (-6.3) | 138.2 (+14.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -10.4 (-7.4) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -11.2 (-8.2) | 142.4 (+10.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -11.4 (-8.4) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UAB 71 – 62 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#91) | -1.2 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#73) | -1.36 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#78) | -1.51 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#69) | 0.413 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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