Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -170 MUR +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +17 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -5.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -6.2 (+10.8) | 159.3 (+29.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -5.2 (+11.8) | 159.3 (+29.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.7 (+10.3) | 157.4 (+31.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.1 (+10.9) | 157.4 (+31.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | BEL 69 – 64 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 11-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#69) | 7.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#60) | 0.96 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#56) | 1.10 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#57) | 0.549 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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