Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +102 BEL -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +17 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -0.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.9 (-17.9) | 163.9 (-6.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.6 (-17.6) | 162.7 (-5.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -0.3 (-17.3) | 164.0 (-7.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.5 (-17.5) | 162.7 (-5.7) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | BEL 69 – 64 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#100) | 8.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#94) | 1.62 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#102) | 2.17 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#76) | 0.577 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 61.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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