He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Murray State Racers
77 95
FINAL Conference
Belmont Bruins
Missouri Valley Conference · CFSB Center · January 25, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MUR -4.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money MUR -185 / BEL +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total MUR win
Actual BEL +18 172 Lost
Massey MUR -4.6 (-22.6)
Massey Totals 157.9 (+14.1)
Bradley-Terry 50%
Weighted B-T 61%
Efficiency Plus ML MUR -2.9 (-20.9) 150.2 (+21.8) 63%
Baseline Tuned ML MUR -3.2 (-21.2) 151.3 (+20.7) 66%
Baseline ML MUR -3.4 (-21.4) 153.5 (+18.5) 63%
Baseline Plus ML MUR -3.8 (-21.8) 153.7 (+18.3) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 15, 2026 BEL 8770 MUR
Feb 1, 2026 BEL 10386 MUR
Mar 2, 2025 BEL 7060 MUR
Feb 29, 2024 BEL 8361 MUR
Feb 8, 2024 BEL 6964 MUR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MUR BEL
Overall 16-17 22-11
Conference 9-11 13-7
Home 8-5 11-5
Away 5-8 9-4
Neutral 3-4 2-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.6 78.9
Avg Pts Against 70.2 76.8
Massey 2.3 (#126) 1.1 (#147)
Bradley-Terry 0.46 (#131) 1.07 (#91)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.66 (#124) 0.93 (#100)
RPI 0.527 (#126) 0.558 (#76)
Shooting & Four Factors MUR BEL
FG% 44.3% 46.5%
3PT% 34.7% 36.4%
REB / G 32.9 35.5
OREB / G 8.9 9.8
AST / TO 1.02 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 54.8%
TOV% 17.0% 16.2%
ORB% 27.0% 27.4%
FT Rate 31.4% 19.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.3% 54.1%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 17.3%
DRB% 75.0% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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