Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -185 BEL +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +18 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -4.6 (-22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.8 (-21.8) | 153.7 (+18.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.9 (-20.9) | 150.2 (+21.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -3.2 (-21.2) | 151.3 (+20.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.4 (-21.4) | 153.5 (+18.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | BEL 69 – 64 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#126) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#131) | 1.07 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#124) | 0.93 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#126) | 0.558 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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