Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -150 MUR +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -0.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -0.7 (+4.3) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -0.4 (+4.6) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.7 (+3.3) | 144.4 (-11.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -1.0 (+4.0) | 144.6 (-11.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | 2.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#140) | -0.49 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#142) | 0.06 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#126) | 0.483 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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