Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TEM +380 USF -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USF -7.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.9 (+5.9) | 151.6 (+5.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.8 (+6.8) | 156.0 (+1.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.2 (+8.2) | 153.7 (+3.3) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -5.3 (+6.3) | 153.3 (+3.7) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | TEM 73 – 71 USF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | USF 100 – 91 TEM |
| Jan 25, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 TEM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | USF 76 – 68 TEM |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TEM 79 – 76 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#162) | 10.3 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#158) | 1.27 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#150) | 1.95 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#190) | 0.577 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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