Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USF -225 TEM +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USF -8.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -6.8 (+1.2) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.6 (+2.4) | 145.7 (-1.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -6.1 (+1.9) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -5.9 (+2.1) | 145.5 (-1.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | TEM 79 – 78 USF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | TEM 73 – 71 USF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | USF 100 – 91 TEM |
| Jan 25, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 TEM |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TEM 79 – 76 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#145) | -2.1 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#192) | 0.10 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#179) | -0.43 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#208) | 0.516 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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