Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TEM +120 USF -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -5.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -4.6 (-2.6) | 153.0 (-9.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -3.1 (-1.1) | 155.7 (-11.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -4.8 (-2.8) | 156.0 (-12.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -4.4 (-2.4) | 154.5 (-10.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | TEM 79 – 78 USF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | USF 100 – 91 TEM |
| Jan 25, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 TEM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | USF 76 – 68 TEM |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TEM 79 – 76 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#159) | -2.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#177) | -0.37 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#180) | -0.48 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.476 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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